A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Both authors two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
